Cowboy Space Corp announced a $275M Series B on May 11, 2026, with a plan to build its own Falcon 9-class rocket and fly it before end-2028. That's roughly 30 months from public program start to a launch pad. So I worked the historical record at the engine-family level to see whether the timeline has any precedent.
Across 15 orbital-class engine families that have flown — from the F-1 in 1967 to BE-4 in 2024, four nations, 75 years — the median time from program start to a successful first-stage burn on an orbital-class launcher is ~9 years. The fastest historical family was 5 years, tied by Merlin (M1A on F1-2), TQ-12, Rutherford, and Reaver 1. All four were small-lift engines under 1 MN of sea-level thrust each.
Every clean-sheet engine large enough to power a Falcon 9-class vehicle has taken 9 to 14 years to reach stage 1 success. RD-170 at 9. Raptor family at 12. BE-4 at 13. YF-100 at 13. YF-77 at 14. No clean-sheet program, of any thrust class, has hit stage 1 success in under 5 years. 2.5 years has zero historical precedent.