Cowboy Space target
~2.5years to first launch
On May 11, 2026, Cowboy Space Corporation announced a $275M Series B and a plan to build its own Falcon 9-class rocket — first flight before end of 2028. TechCrunch coverage here. That's roughly 30 months from public program start to a launch pad. Here's how every comparable engine program from 1957 to today actually played out.
Measured at the engine-family level (Merlin 1A→1D as one family, Raptor 1→3 as one family, etc.) from program development start to the first time the engine family's first stage completed a successful burn on an orbital-class launch vehicle. This is a generous criterion — it credits programs where the engine did its job even if the upper stage or recovery failed. Sources are public-domain (Wikipedia, Astronautix, NASASpaceflight, company press) and cited in the dataset. NK-15 (N1) never achieved stage 1 success across 4 launches. NK-33/Antares is excluded from the visible timeline as a 45-year outlier (Soviet engine mothballed for decades before flying on Antares 100 in 2013).
Number of orbital-class flight attempts before the engine family completed a successful first-stage burn. Across 75 years and 4 nations, of 14 flown families: 7 got their stage 1 right on the first try, 6 needed between one and five additional attempts, and NK-15 never completed a stage 1 burn across 4 N1 launches before the program was canceled. Astra's Delphin engine family needed six total launches before reaching orbit on LV0007 (Nov 2021). NK-33 sat mothballed for 25 years before flying on Antares — a 45-year dev cycle.
Not predictions — just the pattern in the data.
Across 15 historical engine families spanning 75 years, the median time from program start to first stage 1 burn success on an orbital-class launcher is ~9 years. The fastest historical family was 5 years — Merlin, TQ-12, Rutherford, and Reaver 1 all tied at that mark, and all are small-lift engines (≤1 MN sea-level thrust per engine). Every clean-sheet engine large enough to power a Falcon 9-sized vehicle has taken 9–14 years to reach stage 1 success (RD-170: 9y, Raptor family: 12y, BE-4: 13y, YF-100: 13y, YF-77: 14y). No clean-sheet program, of any thrust class, has hit stage 1 success in under 5 years.
Of 14 engine families that have flown an orbital-class vehicle, 7 cleared stage 1 burn success on their first attempt: F-1, RD-180, BE-4, YF-100, YF-77, TQ-12, and Aeon 1. The other 6 needed between one and five additional attempts. Astra's Delphin needed 6 total launches before stage 1 succeeded. NK-15 never completed a stage 1 burn across 4 N1 launches — the program was canceled. The clean-debut families were all backed by national programs (F-1, RD-180 via RD-170, BE-4 via ULA, YF-100/77) or derisked extensively on test stands (TQ-12, Aeon 1). A first launch by end-2028 is not the same as a successful orbital mission.
SpaceX took ~$390M of NASA COTS (plus equivalent private capital) to get Falcon 9 v1.0 to flight. Relativity has raised ~$1.3B and still hasn't flown Terran R. Stoke is at $1.34B and hasn't flown Nova. Cowboy Space's $275M is roughly one funding round below the historical "first flight" capital floor for a vehicle this size — and the rocket is only the cost-side; data-center sats add 9-figures more.
The unusual structural move is building the data center into the second stage — a callback to Explorer 1 (1958) where the final stage was the satellite. This eliminates payload integration friction and the bus mass budget, but it also means every launch carries irreplaceable compute hardware. Net: the engine program is fast-tracked, but the payload risk profile is unforgiving. One bad day on the pad costs ~$50M+ of GPUs.
Every engine program referenced above, with sea-level thrust, propellant, cycle, and program economics. Numbers rounded; cost estimates derived from public disclosures and known contracts.
| Engine | Company | Propellant | Cycle | Thrust SL (kN) | Isp SL (s) | Pc (bar) | Per stage | First flight | Years dev | Outcome | Unit cost (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-1 🇺🇸 | Rocketdyne | LOX/RP-1 | Gas gen | 6,770 | 263 | 70 | 5 | 1967 | 10 | Success | Govt program |
| NK-15 🇷🇺 | Kuznetsov | LOX/RP-1 | Ox-rich SC | 1,505 | 297 | 148 | 30 | 1969 | 4 | 4× Fail | Govt program |
| RD-170 🇷🇺 | NPO Energomash | LOX/RP-1 | Ox-rich SC | 7,250 | 309 | 245 | 4 (Energia) | 1987 | 9 | Success | Govt program |
| RD-180 🇷🇺 | NPO Energomash | LOX/RP-1 | Ox-rich SC | 3,830 | 311 | 267 | 1 (Atlas V) | 2000 | 6 | Success | $11–25M |
| YF-100 🇨🇳 | CASC / Xi'an | LOX/RP-1 | Ox-rich SC | 1,200 | 300 | 180 | 1–6 (varies) | 2015 (LM-6) | 13 | Success | Govt program |
| YF-77 🇨🇳 | CASC / Beijing | LOX/LH₂ | Gas gen | 518 (×2) | 317 | 101 | 2 (LM-5 core) | 2016 | 14 | Success | Govt program |
| TQ-12 🇨🇳 | LandSpace | LOX/CH₄ | Gas gen | 658 | 285 | 101 | 4 (ZQ-2) | 2022 | 5 | Stage 1 ✓ ZQ-2 maiden | Unknown |
| TQ-12A 🇨🇳 | LandSpace | LOX/CH₄ | Gas gen | 800 | ~290 | ~105 | 9 (ZQ-3) | 2025 | 3 | Stage 1 ✓ · land ✗ | Unknown |
| Merlin 1A | SpaceX | LOX/RP-1 | Gas gen | 340 | 255 | ~60 | 1 | 2006 | 4 | Stage 1 ✓ F1-2 | N/A |
| Merlin 1C | SpaceX | LOX/RP-1 | Gas gen | 556 | 275 | 67 | 9 (F9 v1.0) | 2010 | 4 | Success | ~$1M |
| Merlin 1D | SpaceX | LOX/RP-1 | Gas gen | 845 | 282 | 97 | 9 | 2013 | 2 | Success | ~$1–2M |
| Raptor 1 | SpaceX | LOX/CH₄ | FFSC | 1,810 | 327 | 330 | 33 (SH) | 2019 (Hopper) | 7 | Success | ~$1M target |
| Raptor 2 | SpaceX | LOX/CH₄ | FFSC | 2,260 | 327 | 330 | 33 (SH) | 2023 (IFT-1) | 4 | Stage 1 ✓ IFT-3 | Unknown |
| Raptor 3 | SpaceX | LOX/CH₄ | FFSC | 2,750 | ~327 | 330 | 33+ | 2026 (planned) | 3 | Pending | Unknown |
| BE-4 | Blue Origin | LOX/CH₄ | Ox-rich SC | 2,460 | ~340 | 140 | 2 / 7 | 2024 | 13 | Success | ~$8–10M |
| Rutherford | Rocket Lab | LOX/RP-1 | Electric pump | 24 | 311 | N/A | 9 | 2017 | 4 | Stage 1 ✓ F2 '18 | ~$250K |
| Delphin | Astra/Ventions | LOX/RP-1 | Electric pump | 29 | N/A | N/A | 5 | 2018 | 9 | Stage 1 ✓ LV0007 '21 | Unknown |
| Reaver 1 | Firefly | LOX/RP-1 | Tap-off | 184 | ~280 | N/A | 4 | 2021 | 4 | Stage 1 ✓ F2 '22 | Unknown |
| Aeon 1 | Relativity | LOX/CH₄ | Gas gen (3DP) | 100 | N/A | N/A | 9 | 2023 | 6 | Stage 1 ✓ · retired | Unknown |
| Aeon R | Relativity | LOX/CH₄ | Gas gen (high-P) | 1,150 | N/A | N/A | 13 | 2026 (planned) | 5 | Pending | Unknown |
| Zenith | Stoke Space | LOX/CH₄ | FFSC | 440 | N/A | N/A | 7 | 2026 (planned) | ~4 | Pending | Unknown |
| Cowboy Space (TBD) | Cowboy Space | TBD | TBD | ~8–10 MN total | TBD | TBD | TBD | 2028 target | 2.5 | Announced | $275M S-B |